Betting Odds Posted for 2014 WSOP Main Event Final Table
With the 2014 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event final table just two and a half weeks away, it is time to snap out of our Main Event hiatus doldrums and start gearing up for the culmination of the WSOP year. What better way to do so than to dream about how we can make money off of the tournament without being one of the skilled and fortunate few who are actually still playing in it?
Behold, the betting odds for the Final Table. Yes, you, too can get a sick sweat going by railing one of the November Nine. Let’s take a look first at Bovada’s lines:
Jorryt van Hoof (38,375,000 Chips) – 57/20
Felix Stephensen (32,775,000 Chips) – 4/1
Mark Newhouse (26,000,000 Chips) – 5/1
Andoni Larrabe (22,550,000 Chips) – 7/1
Dan Sindelar (21,200,000 Chips) – 15/2
Martin Jacobson (14,900,000 Chips) – 8/1
Will Pappaconstantinou (17,500,000 Chips) – 10/1
William Tonking (15,050,000 Chips) – 12/1
Bruno Politano (12,125,000 Chips) – 16/1
As is normally the case, the odds largely fall into line with the chip counts, with Jorryt van Hoof, the chip leader going into the final table, established as the early favorite. Where Bovada’s odds veer from that pattern is in the sixth favorite, Martin Jacobson, who is actually eighth in chips. Jacobson likely was elevated a couple spots because of his history of success in large tournaments. He currently ranks 15th in the Global Poker Index and has over $5.5 million lifetime earnings on the live tournament circuit (this number appears to include the $730,725 that he is guaranteed by making the WSOP Main Event final table). Looking at his resume at TheHendonMob.com, he has all sorts of deep runs, as one
would expect with that career winnings total. Some of his most recent big scores include an eighth place finish in the $100,000 Challenge and a fourth place finish in the $25,000 Challenge at the Aussie Millions this year, and a sixth place finish in the 2013 WSOP One Drop High Roller Event. He also had several final table finishes a few years ago on the World Poker Tour, European Poker Tour, and at the WSOP. As he is not significantly behind the two men ahead of him in the standings, Bovada likely gave him the bump because of his experience.
Over on Pinnacle, Jacobson has been elevated one more spot, up to the fifth favorite. Pinnacle’s odds are in decimal form, which are actually easier to read than fractional form, but of course not as easy to compare. Here’s a look at Pinnacle’s odds, with fractional conversion:
Jorryt van Hoof – 4.189 (3.19/1)
Felix Stephensen – 5.760 (4.76/1)
Mark Newhouse – 5.790 (4.79/1)
Andoni Larrabe – 7.480 (6.48/1)
Martin Jacobson – 8.120 (7.12/1)
Dan Sindelar – 9.090 (8.09/1)
Will Pappaconstantinou – 10.960 (9.96/1)
William Tonking – 12.990 (11.99/1)
Bruno Politano – 15.900 (14.9/1)
Pinnacle gives Jorryt van Hoof a slightly worse chance to win, though he is still the favorite. Translation: if you’re going to bet on him and are deciding between these two sports books, go with Pinnacle. Pinnacle puts Felix Stephensen and return November Niner Mark Newhouse almost dead even, meaning Pinnacle’s odds for Stephensen are slightly than the odds at Bovada, while Pinnacle improves Newhouse’s odds slightly. Andoni Larrabe is given a little bit better chance to win at Pinnacle. As one might have expected given the earlier note about Pinnacle’s treatment of Jacobson, his odds there are clearly more favorable than at Bovada. Dan Sindelar, in turn, is knocked down slightly at Pinnacle. Will Pappaconstantinou and William Tonking have almost exactly the same odds at both books, while Pinnacle likes Politano more than does Bovada.
One reason why Pinnacle gave the shortest stack at the table better odds than did Bovada may be because of how “not short” his stack really is. In article on its site, Pinnacle noted that even though Politano has just 6 percent of the chips in play, three players at last year’s final table had a smaller percentage. At more than 30 big blinds, Politano’s stack is rather large for a short stack, given him more opportunity to make a move than one would initially think.
Pinnacle also essentially advised against betting on van Hoof, saying, “….if you believe the players are roughly equal in ability, you’ll stay away unless the market evens out.” As Pinnacle points out, though van Hoof is the favorite, the site’s odds give him only around 24 percent chance of winning, hardly an overwhelming favorite. As there are players with chip stacks not too much smaller than van Hoof’s, it may be wiser to put money on one of them for the chance of a a bigger payday.
Additionally, Pinnacle reminds us that being the big stack guarantees absolutely nothing. Only three of the last ten chip leaders entering final table play has gone on to win the Main Event and one, Philip Hilm, was the first to be eliminated, in 2007. That was also the year that the shortest stack, Jerry Yang, steam rolled the final table and ended up winning. The three chip leaders to go on to win also had three of the four largest percentages of chips in play of the last ten chip leaders. Greg “Fossilman” Raymer had 32.3 percent of the chips in 2004, Jonathan Duhamel had 29.6 percent in 2010, and Jamie Gold had 28.8 percent in 2006. Darvin Moon had 31.3 percent of the chips in 2009, but came in second to Joe Cada.
For comparison, Jorryt van Hoof has only 19.1 percent of the chips at the final table.